Hello, this is James Mayer, Branch Manager, from the Huffman Mayer Wealth Management Group of Wells Fargo Advisors.
· According to FactSet, 1Q24 earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to grow by 3.4%. If that estimate turns out to be correct, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of growth for the indexes earnings.
· Since the start of the year, analysts have grown more bearish on the Materials sector by 13%, and now expect an earnings decline of 23.4% for the 1Q. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary stocks have seen the biggest improvement in earnings outlook, with estimates rising 2.1% to a 15.4% estimated growth rate for the 1Q24.
· According to data from JPMorgan, since the last stock market peak in February of 2020, the two best performing sectors are Technology, with a return of 116.3%, and Energy, with a return of 89.3%. The two worst performing sectors have been Real Estate, with a return of -4.4%, and Utilities, with a return of 0.8%. The return for the S&P 500 as a whole over that timeframe has been 60.6%.
In Summary:
1. S&P EPS are expected to grow by 3.4% this quarter. If correct, this will mark the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth.
2. Materials stocks have seen EPS outlook revised down to a 23.4% contraction for 1Q24, whereas Consumer Discretionary stocks have seen EPS outlook revised up to 15.4% growth.
3. Since the last market peak, Technology and Energy have led the market, while Utilities and Real Estate have been the biggest laggards.
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