Hello, this is James Mayer, Branch Manager, from the Huffman Mayer Paolo Wealth Management Group of Wells Fargo Advisors.
August in North East Ohio is interesting for so many reasons. School will be starting soon, parents celebrate, teachers cry…just kidding
High School football is right around the corner.
My youngest daughter Nora will turn 9, where does the time go.
Our intern Dylan heads back to campus, seems like he just got here.
Lets kick it over to Phil for some key things that happened in July.
World Photography Day is August 19th. So for the month of August, each of our three key facts will have a picture of some kind to go with it.
1. Currently, the Net Profit Margin for S&P 500 companies is expected to be 11.1% for the second quarter of 2023. If that estimate turns out to be correct, it will be the seventh time in eight quarters that net margins have declined, with the loan exception being 1Q23, in which margins rose to 11.5% from 11.2% in the final quarter of 2022.
2. The Federal Reserve Bank’s “Dot Plot” of median future rate expectations continues to increase for all periods. This chart shows expectations from the Fed’s September and December meetings last year, and the March and June meetings in 2023, with the more recent meetings in increasingly dark shades of blue. The trend here is clear: The Fed still expects rates to decline, but the pace of decline keeps decreasing.
3. Inflation for certain good and services is still a problem, although it has been trending generally lower over the last year or so. Today, U.S. inflation sits at 3-5%, depending on which measures you look at (core vs. non-core, CPI vs. PCE, etc). Here, we compare June CPI readings for the G-7 Nations, where the U.S. is currently faring better than France, Germany, Italy and the U.K., each of which had inflation over 5%. Data courtesy of FactSet.
My summary:
1. S&P 500 Net Profit Margins continue to fall, with 2Q23 expected to show the 7th decline in 8 quarters.
2. The Fed’s “Dot Plot” shows that rates are expected to fall through 2025, but not as quickly as was previously anticipated.
3. Inflation is likewise falling, with the U.S. showing below average inflation compared with the rest of the G-7 Nations.
This our last video this summer with Dylan.
What have you learned this summer….
Thanks James. There have been plenty of learning opportunities for me this summer. My key takeaways from the past three months have been:
1. Understanding the steps involved in creating a comprehensive retirement plan for clients, including gathering data, analyzing their current situation, and recommending appropriate strategies
2. Learning the role of different team members and the value of their position and how it plays a key part in the success of the firm.
3. The role of software and the tools needed for data analysis, financial modeling, and client management to ensure clients get the experience they deserve.
We always want to talk with you. If you feel you know someone who would enjoy this video please feel free to send them the link.
As always stay happy, safe, and healthy and hopefully we will see you very soon.