The Word from Main Street

Market Update for the Week of October 18, 2021

ClearBridge Investments believes the future for stocks and the economy may not be as gloomy as peak monetary policy suggests. Below is a summary of the most recent Recession Indicators report:

Key Takeaways:
According to Jeff Schulze, CFA & Investment Strategist with ClearBridge Investments:
* Headline risks around peak everything overlook rolling stock corrections in large swaths of the market and bearish investor sentiment, factors likely to soften the current drawdown.
* The future for stocks may not be as gloomy as peak monetary policy suggests due to a change in how the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches inflation and the likelihood of new leadership that could make the central bank even more dovish.
* Despite a near-term drag on growth from the Delta variant, the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard remains firmly in expansionary territory and the economy appears poised to accelerate into the fourth quarter and early 2022.  

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Source: ClearBridge Investments

Staying with the economy, below is the most recent Recovery Tracker from First Trust Advisors that shows the 2019 level, month-over-month (MOM), and week-over-week (WOW) comparisons of high frequency economic data.

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Source: First Trust Advisors

Below are the graphs and information from the most recent COVID-19 tracker provided by First Trust Advisors.

10-18 Daily Rptd.jpg

Source: First Trust Advisors

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Source: First Trust Advisors

10-18 Vacc Dose Type.jpg 

Source: First Trust Advisors

 10-18 Windows.jpg

Source: First Trust Advisors

 10-18 Seasonal Flu.jpg

Source: First Trust Advisors

 10-18 Sea Area Death.jpg

Source: First Trust Advisors

 10-18 UK Death.jpg

Source: First Trust Advisors

A recent poll of food service workers – including servers, bartenders, and hostesses – found that 80% said they either witnessed or experienced hostile behavior over virus-safety measures, according to the May survey of more than 2,000 workers by One Fair Wage and the University of California Berkeley Food Labor Research Center (source: The Wall Street Journal September 16th, 2021). Between mid-March and mid-October 2020, the number of mental-health related ER visits per 100,000 total visits rose from the year-earlier period by 24% for 5- to 11-year-olds and by 31% for the 12- to 17-year-olds, according to data from the CDC (source: The Wall Street Journal August 30th, 2021).

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